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2008 NFL Mock Draft

It's been more than a month since I put together my first NFL mock draft of the year, and a whole lot has changed since then. Some players, like Rashard Mendenhall of Illinois, are rocketing up draft boards, while others like Mario Manningham have disappointed. Scouts seem more sure than ever that there is only one likely first round quarterback, Matt Ryan, and the rest are second round types. News reports and injury stories are changing how people feel about players. In other words, everything is normal for this type of year - NFL administrations are neurotic, and they are acting like it. This is my current best guess of how the draft will play out. I reserve the right to change my opinion a million times before the end of April.

1. Miami - Chris Long, DE, Virginia. This is more of a default pick that anything. I don't believe that Miami really wants anything to do with this pick, but I also don't think that they will be able to get rid of it. I don't see them taking Ryan for first overall money, though they probably do need a quarterback. Sedrick Ellis is in play here, and Jake Long can't be counted out. For now, though, the most buzz is around Howie's son, and I will go with that.

2. St. Louis - Jake Long, OT, Michigan. No-brainer. The guy was an absolute beast at the Combine, he fills a need, and he will be a consistent Pro Bowler for a decade. Unless he goes first this Long is virtually a lock here. The only other player they would take is Chris Long if he were available. Either way, the Long No. 1 jersey is already printed.

3. Atlanta - Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College. Again, this one seems straightforward. They need a QB and a new image, and this guy is clean cut and solid. I don't know how confident I am in his long-term prospects, but the scouts like him, and he fills a need. Of course, pretty much any player on the board fills a need for Atlanta.

4. Oakland - Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC. I had McFadden here last time, but I'm going to give Al Davis credit for having a brain cell or two. Dangerous, I know. He has an adequate back in Justin Fargas, and he has absolutely nothing of note on the defensive line. Glenn Dorsey is falling because of injury concerns, and Ellis is on the rise.

5. Kansas City - Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State. I have never played football, but I am fairly confident I could make the offensive line of the Chiefs given its current sorry state. This is perhaps a bit high for Clady, but he is legitimate, and their need is real. They could probably be enticed to move down a couple of picks if there was interest. That could be the case if McFadden is still available.

6. New York Jets - Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas. The Jets have a lot of needs, but even they can't screw this up. If McFadden is here they really have no choice but to pick him.

7. New England (from San Francisco) - Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State. Gholston is a very good end, and he is definitely athletic enough to play linebacker as well. That versatility will be valued by the Pats. I just wonder whether they will let him play linebacker there because he is about 10 years below the minimum age for that unit. Junior Seau could be his father.

8. Baltimore - Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida. I had Brian Brohm here before, but the scouts' love affair with him appears to be over, and this is way too high. The way things are shaking out Baltimore will be able to get their QB - Brohm, Flacco or Henne, with their second round pick. Instead, I think they will go with a cornerback. That position is wide open, but Jenkins was the Combine star, so I'll put him at the head of the class.

9. Cincinnati - Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson. Cincinnati wants flexibility on the d-line - an end who can move inside when the go 4-3 - and Merling is that guy.

10 New Orleans - Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU. This is the first big drop on the board, and perhaps the biggest steal. Dorsey is a better player than this spot, but this is where he fits. The injury whispers that are going around seem silly, and anyone who has ever watched LSU play knows what kind of beast the guy is. New Orleans would have a very good day if things played out like this.

11. Buffalo - Limas Sweed, WR, Texas. Buffalo is a team I like, but they need a couple of key pieces. Foremost is someone to take the receiving pressure off of Lee Evans. That means I have the Bills penciled in to take the top WR prospect, and at this time that appears to be Sweed. I'm firm on the position and lukewarm on the player right now. Malcolm Kelly is in the mix, too, and I have not given up completely on Manningham despite his terrible Combine.

12. Denver - Keith Rivers, OLB, USC. Denver loves linebackers, and they don't have enough who aren't lousy right now. Rivers is the best linebacker on the board by quite a bit. I'm not going to over think this one.

13. Carolina - Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois. I had Jeff Otah here, but he underwhelmed in Indy. Running back isn't a glaring need for the Panthers, but they could use an upgrade, and Mendenhal is rocketing up draft boards. He would probably be too good to pass up if available. A lot of people are saying that Mendenhall's rise is a big surprise. They obviously don't watch much Big Ten football. As a Michigan fan I am more excited that he is leaving than anyone. The guy is a stud.

14. Chicago - Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh. The Bears obviously need a QB, but there is none to pick here. That means they can fill other holes, and one glaring one is the O-line. Otah is raw, and he could have been better at the Combine, but he has a lot of upside, and he is the best available.

15. Detroit - Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy. I don't see a good starting corner on the Lions' roster. That makes this a pick that even Matt Millen can't screw up. Jenkins or Aqib Talib of Kansas would fit just as well here.

16. Arizona - Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas. The Cards have no depth at corner, so they will grab whichever of the top three corners is still available. The only thing I see changing that is if Mendenhall were to drop here - he would be an excellent way to transition away from Edgerrin James.

17. Minnesota - Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida. With the sad news that Kenichi Udeze has Lukemia, a d-line that was already a little concerning has become a nightmare. They need bodies, and Harvey is an excellent one.

18. Houston - Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon. This is a tough spot because the Texans need almost everything. I would love to give them a left tackle, but I don't see one worth the pick here. Stewart had a great Combine, and Ahman Green is not the answer to any question worth asking. This would be a very good pick for a team who desperately needs some of those.

19. Philadelphia - Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State. The Eagles need DBs, and DRC has had an amazing offseason to rocket up draft boards. He was blazing fast at the Combine, and should be able to adjust to a huge step up in competition. Safety Kenny Philips of Miami is another option here. There is also the chance that they go for a wide receiver who is a playmaker to appease McNabb now that he appears to be staying in town.

20. Tampa Bay - Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina. I had Manningham here, but he disappointed at the Combine. They have several needs - running back, receiver, o-line. In the end, though, I think they will take the opportunity to give Gaines Adams a playmate on the d-line. Balmer is solid value here, though I would be more confident if he had had more than one great year in college.

21. Washington - Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma. The Skins could go a lot of ways, but they have needed receivers since Art Monk left, and Kelly is too good to let go.

22. Dallas (from Cleveland) - Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas. This is assuming that Jerry Jones isn't stupid enough to trade up for McFadden. Jones is a stud who could split with Barber, and he can return kicks as well. Great choice.

23. Pittsburgh - Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt. The Steelers are losing offensive lineman in frightening numbers, so they will almost certainly pick one up here. They'll take the best on the board. In my scenario that is Williams, though I wouldn't be at all surprised if he was unavailable and they had to go for someone else. Thankfully, there are lots of solid choices.

24. Tennessee - DeSean Jackson, WR, Cal. The Titans definitely need a receiver. My fear is that they will take Jackson. The guy is freakishly fast and explosive, but he is just 169 pounds. I think he'll get crushed like a bug in the NFL. I'd much rather have James Hardy from Indiana, but he won't sell tickets like Jackson.

25. Seattle - Fred Davis, TE, USC. If one of the previously named running backs is here, they would take him to replace Alexander. Anyone else is a stretch, though, and they can wait until later. In that case, I guess they go for a tight end, and Davis is the current best choice.

26. Jacksonville - Calais Campbell, DE, Miami. Bobby McCray is gone, and Reggie Hayward has been lousy, so DE is the big need. Campbell is my top remaining player in the position, though Lawrence Jackson or Quentin Groves could be good choices as well.

27. San Diego - Kenny Phillips, S, Miami. San Diego doesn't need a whole lot, but backfield depth never hurts, and Phillips is the best remaining DB on the board.

28. Dallas - Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan. Maybe I am biased, but I have seen Manningham make too many huge plays in college to believe that his speed is a problem. He was undeniably slow at the Combine, but I think he will make a team very happy, and I don't see why Dallas, a team without glaring needs, would pass him up.

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29. San Francisco (from Indianapolis) - Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn. They need a receiver, but they have another picking coming up right away, and they will be able to get a good one there. They also need to establish a pass rush, and Groves is the best rush end left. If a top receiver falls to them I think they would grab him.

30. Green Bay - Sam Baker, OT, USC. The pack will go for o-line help, and I like Baker best of what is left, though I would have no argument with Gosder Cherilus of Boston College, either.

31. New York Giants - Dan Connor, OLB, Penn State. The champs need linebackers, and picking a linebacker from Penn State rarely backfires. Connor could find himself wearing blue for a long time, and looking good doing it.